Certox
This is going to be a two-part effort. The first part, today November 3, 2025, and the second part, after the election tomorrow November 4, 2025.
As a young man, I was befriended by a childless couple who sought my company at concerts and the Metropolitan Opera. They were thoughtful, successful and kind.
The couple had a business manufacturing insecticides with a plant in Brooklyn. They named their insecticide Certox, a shortened version of what their product would achieve: certain toxicity.
As we approach the elections in New York, New Jersey, Virginia and California, the Democratic Party is toxic nationwide, engaged in a losing struggle to find acceptance as a national emblem of liberal policies. While many Democrats are elected throughout the country, disputes between left-leaning Democrats and moderate Democrats have left the national party in disarray, much as the Republican Party would be if it did not control both houses of Congress and the White House.
The Republican Party of today is Donald J. Trump and Donald J.Trump is the Republican Party. Any Republican who crosses DJ is done for. DJ’s control is total due to well-placed fear of him and what he will do if he or his minions (think Laura Loomer) believe that a party member is not MAGA-faithful.
Thus, the Democratic Party is in a state of certain toxicity.
BUT, tomorrow’s gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia and the Proposition 50 election in California suspending non-partisan district changes as prescribed by California law, thus enabling gerrymandered redistricting that will add five Democrats to the state’s Congressional delegation, could make the Democratic Party less toxic.
California Governor Gavin Newsom justifies this departure from goo-goo elections by claiming that he has caught the torch flung by Texas’s gerrymander to add five Republican seats there.
In the race for New York City Mayor where socialist Zohran Mamdani is the likely winner over “independent” Andrew Cuomo, his victory will enhance party toxicity because Republicans will make it so.
A day out, I will make some predictions.
New Jersey: Cong. Mikie Sherrill will defeat Jack Ciattarelli, but not by much. In the 2024 presidential race Democrat Kamala Harris beat DJ in the state by only six points. Early voting suggests that Sherrill is ahead.
Virginia: Former Cong. Abigail Spanberger will win. She has a weak opponent. A big question is whether Democrats will have success in the legislative races.
California: Prop. 50 will win.
New York City: Mamdani will win. (You try to find “independent” Cuomo on the ballot. He’s down there somewhere.) The question is the dimensions of a Mamdani victory. If it’s big he will have a “mamdate.” (Caution to Republicans salivating at the thought of Mamdani as the poster boy for their 2026 effort: he will have been in office for 11 months before the November 2026 election. His performance as mayor may not be that bad and could be pretty good.)
Out on a limb I go! Will it be sawed off on Election Day?