What a Difference a Day Makes!
This is the second part of my November 3 post. In that post, after characterizing the Democratic Party as “toxic,” I began the next paragraph with the word BUT (all caps). I predicted wins for Mikey Sherrill in New Jersey, for Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, for Zohran Mamdani in New York and for a California vote enabling redistricting.
What I did not predict is the extent of these victories. All won with landslides that I did not expect, except for Mamdani whose landslide I anticipated. I was especially surprised by New Jersey’s results. I thought it would be close.
BUT (once again) “one swallow doth not a summer make.” The arrival of a single bird does not necessarily indicate a trend.
While no one knows why a voter acted as she did, affordability was Mamdani’s watchword. New York is too expensive. High prices (especially for electricity) also played a major role in Sherrill’s pitch to voters.
Turning to Mamdani, the winner whose victory affects me the most because I am a New Yorker, I have been impressed by two post-election statements by people of influence.
Sending a signal to others similarly situated, Jamie Dimon, president of America’s biggest bank, said that he would work with the Mayor-elect. And James Blair, Deputy Chief of Staff to Trump and political director of Trump’s 2024 campaign, turning to 2026, told Politico Playbook, “I don’t think we’re going to be running against Mamdani.” Elaborating, Blair said that Trump and Republican 2026 candidates will emphasize affordability and an economic message.
In other words, if Republicans are talking about social issues like abortion in 2026 they will be missing the boat because voters want to lower super market prices and are not listening to candidates who have no path to do so.
Prior to Blair’s comments it had been thought that Mamdani would be the Democratic Party poster boy and would produce the argument that all Democrats are “like him.” All races are local. It may be that some Republican candidates will flog Mamdani. So too in Democratic primary races where moderates may charge their opponents with being Mamdani-like.
Mamdani is our next Mayor. I oppose most of his policies. Under a very restrictive home rule, he can’t do what he has proposed without Albany. Gov. Hochul is up for reelection in 2026. She endorsed Mamdani but his lefties can still make trouble for Hochul in a primary.
In one of the Inner Circle shows (the annual roast of politicians by New York reporters), Abe Beame was the Mayor seeking reelection and Gov. Hugh Carey was up the following year. The Beame actor sang, “This year I’m running and next year you’re up, don’t fool around with this yiddisha kop!”
The gavotte between New York City’s mayor and the governor can be a beautiful dance or a crazed disaster!